extensions [ matrix ] globals [ run-counter time-counter time nOfInnovators countOfInnovators peopleListedByThreshold minCircleSize accumMinCircleSize avCircleSize accumAvCircleSize maxCircleSize accumMaxCircleSize sdCircleSize accumSDCircleSize nWithNoCircle accumNoCircle nOfShifters adopters% adoption%Record adoption-table meanAdoption% meanAdoption%List sdAdoption% sdPlus1% sdPlus1%List sdMinus1% sdMinus1%List minMyThreshold medianMyThreshold meanMyThreshold maxMyThreshold accumMinMyThreshold accumMedianMyThreshold accumMeanMyThreshold accumMaxMyThreshold het ] breed [ people person ] people-own [ nOfMyCircle status myThreshold nOfAdoptingFriends myFriendsAdoption% adoption time-adopted ] ;;__________________________________________________________________ to setup clear-all ask patches [ set pcolor white] ; These lists collect the data from each run to be analysed at the end of all the runs. ; This means 'setup' must only be run once, at the beginning. So to reset the agents and ; collect the data from each run, 'go' calls the procedure 'initialise-run'. set accumMinCircleSize [ ] set accumAvCircleSize [ ] set accumMaxCircleSize [ ] set accumNoCircle [ ] set adoption%Record [ ] set adoption-table [ ] set accumMinMyThreshold [ ] set accumMedianMyThreshold [ ] set accumMeanMyThreshold [ ] set accumMaxMyThreshold [ ] end ;__________________________________________________________________ to go initialise repeat number-of-runs [ clear-turtles set run-counter run-counter + 1 set time-counter 0 populate create-circles initialise-run repeat number-of-time-periods [ set time-counter time-counter + 1 if social-shifting [ shift create-circles ] spread ] record-results-at-end-of-run ] record-results-at-end end ;___________________________________________________________________________________________________ ;PROCEDURES ;___________________________________________________________________________________________________ to initialise ; This cannot be done in setup because it needs to be done for each run. set run-counter 0 end ;---------------------------- to populate ; This cannot be done in setup because it needs to be done for each run. set-default-shape people "person" create-people 1000 [ set color black set size 5 setxy random-pxcor random-pycor if any? other turtles-here [ let empty-patches patches with [ not any? turtles-here ] if not any? empty-patches [ show "Run out of empty patches!"] move-to one-of empty-patches ] ] end ;---------------- to shift ; socialShift% set by slider set nOfShifters ( socialShift% * 10 ) ; steps fixed at 1 ask n-of nOfShifters people [ fd 1 while [any? other turtles-here] [ fd 1 ] ] end ;---------------- to create-circles ask people [ set nOfMyCircle count other people in-radius socialReach ] set minCircleSize precision ( min [ nOfMyCircle ] of people ) 2 set avCircleSize precision ( mean [ nOfMyCircle ] of people ) 2 set maxCircleSize precision ( max [ nOfMyCircle ] of people ) 2 set accumMinCircleSize lput minCircleSize accumMinCircleSize set accumAvCircleSize lput avCircleSize accumAvCircleSize set accumMaxCircleSize lput maxCircleSize accumMaxCircleSize set nWithNoCircle count people with [ nOfMyCircle = 0 ] set accumNoCircle lput nWithNoCircle accumNoCircle end ;---------------- to initialise-run set adoption%Record [ ] set meanAdoption%List [ ] set sdPlus1%List [ ] set sdMinus1%List [ ] set time [ ] ask people [ set status 0 set adoption "no" set time-adopted "N/a" set myThreshold 0 ] ; give everyone a personal threshold according to the options chosen and select innovators set nOfInnovators innovators% * 10 ; based on a total population of 1000 ;---------------------------------------------- ; FIXED THRESHOLD OPTIONS - "Infection" models if threshold = "One-scattered" ; select innovators randomly [ ; set threshold ask people with [ nOfMyCircle > 0 ] [ set myThreshold 1 ] ; select innovators ask n-of nOfInnovators people [ adopt set status "Innovator" ] ] ;---------- if threshold = "One-clustered" [ ; set threshold ask people with [ nOfMyCircle > 0 ] [ set myThreshold 1 ] ; select innovators ; to seed process ask one-of people [ adopt set status "Innovator" ] grow-network-of-innovators ; to ensure exactly required number of innovators if countOfInnovators > nOfInnovators [ let surplus ( countOfInnovators - nOfInnovators ) ask n-of surplus people with [ status = "Innovator" ] ; un-adopt [ set status 0 set color black set adoption "no" ] ] ] ;------------------------- ; HETEROGENEOUS THRESHOLDS if threshold = "Heterogeneous-uniform" [ ; give everyone a social threshold from 1 to 100 distributed evenly ask people [ set myThreshold ( 1 + random 99 ) ] record-heterogeneous-thresholds select-innovators ] if threshold = "Heterogeneous-normal" [ ; give everyone a social threshold distibuted normally with mean as set by slider and sd equal to the mean ; with adjustments to ensure values lie between 0 and 100 ask people [ set myThreshold precision ( 1 + ( random-normal meanThreshold ( meanThreshold ) ) ) 0 if myThreshold < 0 [ set myThreshold meanThreshold ] if myThreshold > 100 [ set myThreshold meanThreshold ] ] record-heterogeneous-thresholds select-innovators ] ;-------- ;to record initial position record-adoption-rate end ;-------------------------------- to grow-network-of-innovators ; needs separate procedure because of use of stop. ; increases radius above reach to increase liklihood of a single cluster rather than 2 or 3 smaller clusters set countOfInnovators 0 loop [ ask people with [ adoption = "yes" ] [ let myCircleNonadopters ( other people with [ adoption = "no" ] in-radius (socialReach + 10) ) ifelse count MyCircleNonadopters > 0 [ ask myCircleNonadopters [ adopt set status "Innovator" ] ] ; else: no-one left in network, re-seed [ ask one-of people with [ adoption = "no" ] [ adopt set status "Innovator" ] ] ] set countOfInnovators count people with [ adoption = "yes" ] if ( countOfInnovators >= nOfInnovators) [ stop ] ] end ;-------------------- to select-innovators set peopleListedByThreshold sort-on [ myThreshold ] people set countOfInnovators 0 repeat nOfInnovators [ ask item countOfInnovators peopleListedByThreshold [ adopt set status "Innovator" set countOfInnovators countOfInnovators + 1 ] ] end ;---------------- to spread if threshold = "One-scattered" [ spread-by-infection ] if threshold = "One-clustered" [ spread-by-infection ] if threshold = "Heterogeneous-uniform" [ spread-by-influence ] if threshold = "Heterogeneous-normal" [ spread-by-influence ] ; new adopters adopt ask people with [ status = "new" ] [ adopt set status 0 ] ; record record-adoption-rate end ;------------------------- to spread-by-infection ; if any adopters in circle of non-adopters, non-adopters adopt ; need to do this in two stages to avoid double-countin ask people with [ adoption = "no" and nOfMyCircle > 0] [ set nOfAdoptingFriends count other people with [ adoption = "yes" ] in-radius socialReach if nOfAdoptingFriends >= 1 [ set status "new" ] ] end ;------------------------- to spread-by-influence ask people with [ adoption = "no" and nOfMyCircle = 0 ] [ set myFriendsAdoption% adopters% ] ask people with [ adoption = "no" and nOfMyCircle > 0 ] [ set nOfAdoptingFriends count people with [ adoption = "yes" ] in-radius socialReach set myFriendsAdoption% precision ( ( nOfAdoptingFriends / nOfMyCircle ) * 100 ) 1 ] ask people with [ adoption = "no" ] [ if myFriendsAdoption% >= myThreshold [ set status "new" ] ] end ;----------------- to adopt ; people procedure set adoption "yes" set time-adopted time-counter set color red end ;------------------ to record-adoption-rate set adopters% count people with [ adoption = "yes" ]/ 10 set adoption%Record lput adopters% adoption%Record set time lput time-counter time end ;----------------- to record-heterogeneous-thresholds set het "yes" set minMyThreshold min [myThreshold] of people set accumMinMyThreshold lput minMyThreshold accumMinMyThreshold set medianMyThreshold median [myThreshold] of people set accumMedianMyThreshold lput medianMyThreshold accumMedianMyThreshold set meanMyThreshold mean [myThreshold] of people set accumMeanMyThreshold lput meanMyThreshold accumMeanMyThreshold set maxMyThreshold max [myThreshold] of people set accumMaxMyThreshold lput maxMyThreshold accumMaxMyThreshold end ;------------------- to record-results-at-end-of-run set adoption-table lput adoption%Record adoption-table end ;---------------- to record-results-at-end ; names file according to whether social-shiftuing turned on or not ifelse social-shifting = true [ file-open ( word "Adoption-"socialReach"-socialReach-"threshold"-innovators-"nOfInnovators"-shifting-"number-of-runs"-runs.csv" ) ] [ file-open ( word "Adoption-"socialReach"-socialReach-"threshold"-innovators-"nOfInnovators"-"number-of-runs"-runs.csv" ) ] file-print " " file-print ( word "Results over " number-of-runs " runs" ) file-print " " file-print (word " Mean min circle size = ," precision ( mean accumMinCircleSize ) 1 ) if number-of-runs > 1 [ file-print (word ", sd = ," precision ( standard-deviation accumMinCircleSize ) 1 ) ] file-print (word " Mean av circle size = ," precision ( mean accumAvCircleSize ) 1 ) if number-of-runs > 1 [ file-print (word ", sd = ," precision ( standard-deviation accumAvCircleSize ) 1 ) ] file-print (word " Mean max circle size = ," precision ( mean accumMaxCircleSize ) 1 ) if number-of-runs > 1 [ file-print (word ", sd = ," precision ( standard-deviation accumMaxCircleSize ) 1 ) ] file-print (word " Mean no. with no circle = ," precision ( mean accumNoCircle ) 1 ) if number-of-runs > 1 [ file-print (word ", sd = ," precision ( standard-deviation accumNoCircle ) 1 ) ] file-print " " if het = "yes" [ file-print (word " Mean min threshold = ," precision ( mean accumMinMyThreshold ) 0 ) if number-of-runs > 1 [ file-print (word ", sd = ," precision ( standard-deviation accumMinMyThreshold ) 0 ) ] file-print (word " Mean median threshold = ," precision ( mean accumMedianMyThreshold ) 0 ) if number-of-runs > 1 [ file-print (word ", sd = ," precision ( standard-deviation accumMedianMyThreshold ) 0 ) ] file-print (word " Mean mean threshold = ," precision ( mean accumMeanMyThreshold ) 0 ) if number-of-runs > 1 [ file-print (word ", sd = ," precision ( standard-deviation accumMeanMyThreshold ) 0 ) ] file-print (word " Mean max threshold = ," precision ( mean accumMaxMyThreshold ) 0 ) if number-of-runs > 1 [ file-print (word ", sd = ," precision ( standard-deviation accumMaxMyThreshold ) 0 ) ] ] file-print " " ; display the table, row by row, i.e. one step at a time file-print "Raw data" foreach adoption-table [ file-print ? ] if number-of-runs = 1 [ set-current-plot "Adoption curve" (foreach time adoption%Record [plotxy ?1 ?2]) ] ; next, display the table rotated by 90 degrees, so each row contains ; the values at a specific time step for all steps if number-of-runs > 1 [ file-print " " file-print "Adoption %" foreach (transpose adoption-table) [ set meanAdoption% precision ( mean ?) 2 set meanAdoption%List lput meanAdoption% meanAdoption%List set sdAdoption% precision ( standard-deviation ?) 2 set sdPlus1% precision ( meanAdoption% + sdAdoption% ) 2 if sdPlus1% > 100 [ set sdPlus1% 100 ] ; adoption can't be more than 100% set sdPlus1%List lput sdPlus1% sdPlus1%List set sdMinus1% precision ( meanAdoption% - sdAdoption% ) 2 if sdMinus1% < 0 [ set sdMinus1% 0 ] ; adoption can't be negative set sdMinus1%List lput sdMinus1% sdMinus1%List file-type ? file-type ( word ", Mean = , " meanAdoption% ) ;precision ( mean ?) 2) file-print (word ", sd = ," sdAdoption% ) ] set-current-plot "Adoption curve" set-current-plot-pen "Mean" ( foreach time meanAdoption%List [ plotxy ?1 ?2 ] ) set-current-plot-pen "+1 sd" ( foreach time sdPlus1%List [ plotxy ?1 ?2 ] ) set-current-plot-pen "-1 sd" ( foreach time sdMinus1%List [ plotxy ?1 ?2 ] ) ] ifelse social-shifting = true [ export-all-plots ( word "Adoption-"socialReach"-socialReach-"threshold"-innovators-"nOfInnovators"-shifting-"number-of-runs"-runs.csv" ) ] [ export-all-plots ( word "Adoption-"socialReach"-socialReach-"threshold"-innovators-"nOfInnovators"-"number-of-runs"-runs.csv" ) ] file-close end to-report transpose [tab] ; use the matrix extension to transpose the table report matrix:to-column-list matrix:from-row-list tab end ;__________________________________________________________________________________________________________ ;__________________________________________________________________________________________________________ @#$#@#$#@ GRAPHICS-WINDOW 655 10 1081 457 157 157 1.321 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 1 1 -157 157 -157 157 0 0 1 ticks 30.0 BUTTON 7 11 62 44 setup setup NIL 1 T OBSERVER NIL NIL NIL NIL 1 BUTTON 67 11 131 44 Go go NIL 1 T OBSERVER NIL NIL NIL NIL 1 MONITOR 744 544 847 589 Min circle size mean accumMinCircleSize 2 1 11 MONITOR 973 541 1058 586 Max circle size mean accumMaxCircleSize 2 1 11 MONITOR 854 543 957 588 Average circle size mean accumAvCircleSize 1 1 11 MONITOR 854 596 958 641 SD av circle size standard-deviation accumAvCircleSize 1 1 11 CHOOSER 220 11 358 56 number-of-runs number-of-runs 1 2 30 50 1 MONITOR 367 10 446 55 NIL run-counter 0 1 11 MONITOR 743 594 847 639 SD min standard-deviation accumMinCircleSize 1 1 11 MONITOR 974 597 1056 642 SD max standard-deviation accumMaxCircleSize 2 1 11 CHOOSER 22 189 202 234 threshold threshold "One-scattered" "One-clustered" "Heterogeneous-uniform" "Heterogeneous-normal" 2 CHOOSER 222 69 359 114 number-of-time-periods number-of-time-periods 1 2 5 10 25 50 4 MONITOR 365 69 448 114 NIL time-counter 0 1 11 TEXTBOX 651 476 1048 521 CIRCLE SIZES\nIf no social shifting: same throughout run\nIf social shifting: gives data for first time period. 11 0.0 1 PLOT 14 275 580 528 Adoption curve Time Percent adopted 0.0 50.0 0.0 100.0 true true "" "" PENS "+1 sd" 1.0 0 -2064490 true "" "" "Mean" 1.0 0 -16777216 true "" "" "-1 sd" 1.0 0 -11221820 true "" "" CHOOSER 10 50 148 95 innovators% innovators% 1 2.5 10 1 MONITOR 921 645 1034 690 Check: innovators count people with [ status = \"Innovator\" ] 0 1 11 SLIDER 7 102 146 135 socialReach socialReach 0 100 30 5 1 NIL HORIZONTAL SLIDER 216 190 331 223 meanThreshold meanThreshold 0 100 50 5 1 NIL HORIZONTAL TEXTBOX 214 145 364 187 If 'Heterogeneous-normal' selected, chose mean. SD = mean. 11 0.0 1 MONITOR 33 537 117 582 min Threshold min [ myThreshold] of people 0 1 11 MONITOR 327 533 421 578 max Threshold max [myThreshold] of people 0 1 11 MONITOR 231 533 320 578 mean Threshold mean [ myThreshold] of people 0 1 11 MONITOR 127 536 224 581 medianThreshold median [ myThreshold ] of people 0 1 11 MONITOR 642 575 736 620 No. with no circle mean accumNoCircle 0 1 11 SWITCH 407 147 538 180 social-shifting social-shifting 0 1 -1000 SLIDER 405 189 536 222 socialShift% socialShift% 0 100 5 1 1 NIL HORIZONTAL TEXTBOX 525 47 640 65 Adopters shown in red. 11 0.0 1 @#$#@#$#@ ## WHAT IS IT? To model take-up based on thresholds. ## HOW IT WORKS Each agent has a social circle, generated by drawing around each agent a circle of a given radius - called the `socialReach`. The key coding is: ask people [ set nOfMyCircle count other agents in-radius socialReach ] If social-shifting is switched on, all people move 1 patch each time step: ask people [ fd 1 while [any? other turtles-here] [ fd 1 ] ] Agents adopt according to one of two basic approaches: - infection model: if one of the agent's circle adopts, the agent adopts a. the initial adopters are scattered randomly b. the initial adopters are clustered i.e. are linked by social circles - influence: if a set proportion of the agent's social circle adopt, it adopts. Thresholds are set randomly a. uniformally b. normally The number of agents is fixed at 1,000. ## HOW TO USE IT • Switch social-shfiting on or off. • Choose the threshold type and for the heterogeneous normal version, the mean. • Choose the social reach: for the infection model, this should be small, while for the influence model, large. • Choose the number of innovators i.e. the initial number of adopters. • Choose the number of time periods and number of runs. For a good S-curve reaching saturation, use these settings: Infection-based • social-shifting off • threshold = one, scattered • socialReach = 15 • innovators = 10 Influence-based • social-shifting off • threshold = heterogeneous normally distributed with mean of 25 • socialReach = 30 • innovators = 25 ## CREDITS AND REFERENCES For more information, see Hamill, L. & Gilbert, N. (2016) Agent-based Modelling in Economics. Wiley: Chapter 4. To refer to this model: Hamill, L. & Gilbert, N. (2016) Threshold model. @#$#@#$#@ default true 0 Polygon -7500403 true true 150 5 40 250 150 205 260 250 airplane true 0 Polygon -7500403 true true 150 0 135 15 120 60 120 105 15 165 15 195 120 180 135 240 105 270 120 285 150 270 180 285 210 270 165 240 180 180 285 195 285 165 180 105 180 60 165 15 arrow true 0 Polygon -7500403 true true 150 0 0 150 105 150 105 293 195 293 195 150 300 150 box false 0 Polygon -7500403 true true 150 285 285 225 285 75 150 135 Polygon -7500403 true true 150 135 15 75 150 15 285 75 Polygon -7500403 true true 15 75 15 225 150 285 150 135 Line -16777216 false 150 285 150 135 Line -16777216 false 150 135 15 75 Line -16777216 false 150 135 285 75 bug true 0 Circle -7500403 true true 96 182 108 Circle -7500403 true true 110 127 80 Circle -7500403 true true 110 75 80 Line -7500403 true 150 100 80 30 Line -7500403 true 150 100 220 30 butterfly true 0 Polygon -7500403 true true 150 165 209 199 225 225 225 255 195 270 165 255 150 240 Polygon -7500403 true true 150 165 89 198 75 225 75 255 105 270 135 255 150 240 Polygon -7500403 true true 139 148 100 105 55 90 25 90 10 105 10 135 25 180 40 195 85 194 139 163 Polygon -7500403 true true 162 150 200 105 245 90 275 90 290 105 290 135 275 180 260 195 215 195 162 165 Polygon -16777216 true false 150 255 135 225 120 150 135 120 150 105 165 120 180 150 165 225 Circle -16777216 true false 135 90 30 Line -16777216 false 150 105 195 60 Line -16777216 false 150 105 105 60 car false 0 Polygon -7500403 true true 300 180 279 164 261 144 240 135 226 132 213 106 203 84 185 63 159 50 135 50 75 60 0 150 0 165 0 225 300 225 300 180 Circle -16777216 true false 180 180 90 Circle -16777216 true false 30 180 90 Polygon -16777216 true false 162 80 132 78 134 135 209 135 194 105 189 96 180 89 Circle -7500403 true true 47 195 58 Circle -7500403 true true 195 195 58 circle false 0 Circle -7500403 true true 0 0 300 circle 2 false 0 Circle -7500403 true true 0 0 300 Circle -16777216 true false 30 30 240 cow false 0 Polygon -7500403 true true 200 193 197 249 179 249 177 196 166 187 140 189 93 191 78 179 72 211 49 209 48 181 37 149 25 120 25 89 45 72 103 84 179 75 198 76 252 64 272 81 293 103 285 121 255 121 242 118 224 167 Polygon -7500403 true true 73 210 86 251 62 249 48 208 Polygon -7500403 true true 25 114 16 195 9 204 23 213 25 200 39 123 cylinder false 0 Circle -7500403 true true 0 0 300 dot false 0 Circle -7500403 true true 90 90 120 face happy false 0 Circle -7500403 true true 8 8 285 Circle -16777216 true false 60 75 60 Circle -16777216 true false 180 75 60 Polygon -16777216 true false 150 255 90 239 62 213 47 191 67 179 90 203 109 218 150 225 192 218 210 203 227 181 251 194 236 217 212 240 face neutral false 0 Circle -7500403 true true 8 7 285 Circle -16777216 true false 60 75 60 Circle -16777216 true false 180 75 60 Rectangle -16777216 true false 60 195 240 225 face sad false 0 Circle -7500403 true true 8 8 285 Circle -16777216 true false 60 75 60 Circle -16777216 true false 180 75 60 Polygon -16777216 true false 150 168 90 184 62 210 47 232 67 244 90 220 109 205 150 198 192 205 210 220 227 242 251 229 236 206 212 183 fish false 0 Polygon -1 true false 44 131 21 87 15 86 0 120 15 150 0 180 13 214 20 212 45 166 Polygon -1 true false 135 195 119 235 95 218 76 210 46 204 60 165 Polygon -1 true false 75 45 83 77 71 103 86 114 166 78 135 60 Polygon -7500403 true true 30 136 151 77 226 81 280 119 292 146 292 160 287 170 270 195 195 210 151 212 30 166 Circle -16777216 true false 215 106 30 flag false 0 Rectangle -7500403 true true 60 15 75 300 Polygon -7500403 true true 90 150 270 90 90 30 Line -7500403 true 75 135 90 135 Line -7500403 true 75 45 90 45 flower false 0 Polygon -10899396 true false 135 120 165 165 180 210 180 240 150 300 165 300 195 240 195 195 165 135 Circle -7500403 true true 85 132 38 Circle -7500403 true true 130 147 38 Circle -7500403 true true 192 85 38 Circle -7500403 true true 85 40 38 Circle -7500403 true true 177 40 38 Circle -7500403 true true 177 132 38 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-7500403 true 150 0 150 300 link direction true 0 Line -7500403 true 150 150 30 225 Line -7500403 true 150 150 270 225 pentagon false 0 Polygon -7500403 true true 150 15 15 120 60 285 240 285 285 120 person false 0 Circle -7500403 true true 110 5 80 Polygon -7500403 true true 105 90 120 195 90 285 105 300 135 300 150 225 165 300 195 300 210 285 180 195 195 90 Rectangle -7500403 true true 127 79 172 94 Polygon -7500403 true true 195 90 240 150 225 180 165 105 Polygon -7500403 true true 105 90 60 150 75 180 135 105 plant false 0 Rectangle -7500403 true true 135 90 165 300 Polygon -7500403 true true 135 255 90 210 45 195 75 255 135 285 Polygon -7500403 true true 165 255 210 210 255 195 225 255 165 285 Polygon -7500403 true true 135 180 90 135 45 120 75 180 135 210 Polygon -7500403 true true 165 180 165 210 225 180 255 120 210 135 Polygon -7500403 true true 135 105 90 60 45 45 75 105 135 135 Polygon -7500403 true true 165 105 165 135 225 105 255 45 210 60 Polygon -7500403 true true 135 90 120 45 150 15 180 45 165 90 square false 0 Rectangle -7500403 true true 30 30 270 270 square 2 false 0 Rectangle -7500403 true true 30 30 270 270 Rectangle -16777216 true false 60 60 240 240 star false 0 Polygon -7500403 true true 151 1 185 108 298 108 207 175 242 282 151 216 59 282 94 175 3 108 116 108 target false 0 Circle -7500403 true true 0 0 300 Circle -16777216 true false 30 30 240 Circle -7500403 true true 60 60 180 Circle -16777216 true false 90 90 120 Circle -7500403 true true 120 120 60 tree false 0 Circle -7500403 true true 118 3 94 Rectangle -6459832 true false 120 195 180 300 Circle -7500403 true true 65 21 108 Circle -7500403 true true 116 41 127 Circle -7500403 true true 45 90 120 Circle -7500403 true true 104 74 152 triangle false 0 Polygon -7500403 true true 150 30 15 255 285 255 triangle 2 false 0 Polygon -7500403 true true 150 30 15 255 285 255 Polygon -16777216 true false 151 99 225 223 75 224 truck false 0 Rectangle -7500403 true true 4 45 195 187 Polygon -7500403 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